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Welcome to college football’s biggest week. BYU–Utah lived up to the billing with the Utes surviving a frantic comeback bid from the Cougars. Utah got its first win in the series since 2019. Primetime is headlined by one of the season’s most anticipated games (Miami–Notre Dame).
Following the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday, we also know where these teams stand in the eyes of the committee and which teams have work to do. Better still, the separation starts immediately. There are seven games featuring teams ranked in the top 25 of the CFP rankings.
Throughout Week 10, we’ll be tracking the top moments and highlights from each game and providing instant CFP analysis from ESPN’s Heather Dinich.
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CFP takeaways
Three-loss Ohio State will almost certainly fall out of the committee’s top 12 on Tuesday night following its convincing home loss to Oregon — its second straight defensive collapse in back-to-back defeats. This is one of the most impactful results among the earlier games because it essentially eliminates Ohio State, opens the door for a bubble team to enter the conversation and changes the whole Big Ten race. Ohio State’s loss increases the chances of undefeated UCLA reaching the conference championship game. At No. 12, Ohio State was already out of the playoff field if it were set today because the Buckeyes would have been bumped out for Boise State, the highest-ranked Group of 6 team. Now, Ohio State’s chances of locking up a playoff bid as the Big Ten champion have plummeted with consecutive conference losses to Oregon and USC. It’s not impossible for a three-loss team to reach the CFP, but only two teams have done it and they both played in their conference championship game (Alabama earned a spot as the SEC runner-up last year and three-loss Clemson earned a spot as the ACC champion in 2024). The Buckeyes aren’t going to reach the Big Ten title game now, though, without running the table and getting significant help. And if they’re not in the Big Ten championship, the selection committee already made it clear it doesn’t believe the Buckeyes are a playoff team. Saturday’s result validated that.
Alabama validated its position as the committee’s top two-loss team in Saturday’s win over LSU, though Texas could also make a case following its fourth victory against a CFP top-25 team. Alabama and Texas, though, now have strong enough résumés that they could leapfrog No. 4 Indiana in the second ranking on Tuesday night. Alabama’s résumé will be impacted slightly by how Kentucky fares against Tennessee, as that Sept. 12 road win over UK was one of its résumé highlights, but the Tide passed the eye test on Saturday at LSU. It helped Alabama that South Carolina also won Saturday, as that’s another CFP top-25 triumph that impressed the committee, along with its Oct. 3 win at Mississippi State. Alabama just passed its toughest remaining test and should be favored in each of its three remaining games: at Vanderbilt and home against Chattanooga and rival Auburn. With three losses, LSU is under pressure to run the table, which will be difficult with remaining games against Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas. It helps LSU that Ohio State lost and should tumble out of the top 12, but the way LSU lost to Alabama leaves doubt about whether it is a top-12 team, and the Tigers right now don’t have enough on their résumé to prove it.
Utah‘s win against BYU keeps the undefeated Utes on track for a top-four seed and a first-round bye, while the loss might spell disaster for BYU. The selection committee was already stuck on BYU’s defeat at UCF, and a second setback could drop it out of the top 12 entirely Tuesday, depending on what happens around it. The Big 12 can still get two teams in the CFP, though, as the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game heading into Saturday was Texas Tech and Utah. Assuming the Red Raiders beat West Virginia later Saturday, that won’t change. It’s going to be difficult for BYU to compensate for these two losses, as it’s unlikely to play another ranked opponent during the regular season. (BYU faces Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati). And without a conference title, BYU’s two-loss résumé probably won’t measure up against other two-loss teams that have more impressive wins — particularly from the SEC. BYU’s résumé will also be impacted by how Notre Dame fares Saturday night against Miami. If Miami and Georgia both lose Saturday, Utah would have a strong case for the top spot. The Utes have margin for error with back-to-back road trips looming at Arizona and TCU before ending the season at home against West Virginia.
Undefeated UCLA‘s win against Minnesota should keep it in position to host a first-round CFP game (awarded to teams seeded 5 to 8), but it is still unlikely to usurp undefeated Utah simply because the committee thinks Utah is better. “I think as we looked at those two teams and evaluated them while watching their games, felt like Utah was above UCLA and just a better team when we watch them play,” committee chair Hunter Yurachek said. How high is UCLA’s ceiling in the second ranking Tuesday night? It depends on what happens above them later Saturday, but statistically, the Bruins don’t stand out on paper, with an average offense to complement a standout defense. UCLA’s strength of schedule (currently No. 78) is also one of the worst among the CFP contenders. That was UCLA’s fourth road win, though, and those carry more weight in the committee meeting room. It was also another victory against a team above .500, which will give UCLA’s résumé another boost. UCLA has some much-needed margin for error heading into the final stretch, as ESPN’s FPI gives the Bruins less than a 50% chance to beat both Michigan and USC, their final two opponents of the regular season.
Texas further bolstered its case to be the top two-loss team in the country, depending on how Alabama fares against LSU. Texas now has one of the best résumés in the country, with wins against Ohio State, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. It also gives Texas a little bit of a cushion heading into a Week 11 game at LSU. Even with a third loss, Texas would still have a case for a CFP spot, but some of that could depend on how the game against LSU unfolds. Texas keeps finding ways to win in spite of itself, as penalties and turnovers continue to be a storyline. While it’s still a little too early to rule Missouri out of the playoff conversation entirely, the Tigers’ hopes are dire, but they still have opportunities to impress the committee the next two weeks against Georgia and Kentucky. Going 2-0 against them — especially if they both win today — could make for an interesting debate. Without them, though, Missouri probably doesn’t have enough on its résumé to compensate for a third loss. The Tigers’ best win is against Florida.
