By President Donald Trump has declared the war with Iran “effectively over” in military terms, saying fresh American strikes are “quite unlikely” and not necessary — a dramatic shift that sent oil prices tumbling and put diplomacy, rather than bombardment, at the centre of the crisis for the first time in months.
By Faseeh Ur Rehman
Senior Journalist | The BNN Media – The Best News Network
News Beyond the Borders
Washington, United States — Speaking to reporters in a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room on Monday, 9 November, hours after meeting Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Mr Trump said: “Iran militarily is effectively over. We’re just keeping it the status quo.” It was, by his own account, his most definitive statement yet that he does not intend to resume the bombing campaign he had threatened to restart after the midterm elections.
The president added that Iran had been “decapitated” but said he was still looking to make sure there was a long-term solution to ensure the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme was “defanged”. He said Tehran was talking to Washington, and talking “very politely”. “We’re seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it’s going to be ending fairly soon,” he told CNN.
What Trump Actually Said
The president’s words were carefully balanced between reassurance and warning — a door opened to a deal, with the threat of force kept visible behind it. “The military action doesn’t seem to be a very necessary thing, but we’re locked and loaded, ready to go for any reason that changes,” he said. “Should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the United States of America is fully locked and loaded. We don’t think there’ll be any reason to use it.”
He described a renewed military campaign as “quite unlikely” for now, and told CNN in a telephone interview on Sunday that as long as the United States sees progress in negotiations and the Iranians sign a “strong agreement”, it was “highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary” to resume strikes. He also told CBS News’ 60 Minutes that he was “not looking to” escalate the war.
At the same time, Mr Trump made clear that the threat has not been withdrawn. He said the United States had identified infrastructure targets, including 38 bridges, that it would strike if military action resumed. And he insisted on one point as non-negotiable: “I’ve agreed that Iran cannot have, and everybody’s agreed, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and that’s a non-negotiable point.”
The message was unmistakable: the bombing is on hold, the pressure is not — and the choice now belongs to Tehran.
The Qatar Meeting That Changed the Calculation
The turning point was the meeting with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, who has served as the chief intermediary between Washington and Tehran through most of the conflict. The Qatari leader said afterwards that he was “grateful for the positive discussions on reaching a deal and bringing peace to the region”.
Mr Trump said he had decided to maintain the “status quo” after the conversation, and that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and others would prefer it to remain as it is. A diplomat briefed on the private meeting told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that Mr Trump had made clear he wanted a deal and intended to give the negotiations a chance — but warned he could reverse course if the Iranians did not treat the talks seriously. That account rests on a single unnamed source, and there has been no public response yet from Iran, Qatar or the other Gulf governments Mr Trump spoke for.
Iran and the United States have been quietly negotiating a sensitive agreement that could avert a return to all-out war, according to CNN, with Qatar mediating and circulating a framework document that both Washington and Tehran have been amending. Both sides have revealed little about the discussions, even as diplomatic activity has accelerated since the midterm elections.
The Blockade Stays
What has not changed is the economic siege. Mr Trump said the United States would keep in place what he called the greatest naval blockade in history, alongside a newly announced initiative, Operation Iron Gate, to sever Iran’s overland trading routes. “Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others would prefer the status quo that we remain as is. In other words, a continuation of the greatest naval blockade in the history of our country, probably in the history of the world,” he said.
The president also said he was not withdrawing the American military presence from the region, and that US forces were “fully locked and loaded” if there was “any change with respect to developments in the Middle East”. He added: “We haven’t lost a soldier in six months.” Over the weekend, US forces also struck Iranian air defences on Qeshm Island, which Mr Trump described as “minor strikes”.
The war, in Mr Trump’s telling, is over as a bombing campaign — but the blockade is the war by other means, and it continues in full.
Oil Markets React
The markets needed no second invitation. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell sharply on Monday as traders bet that the risk of a wider Middle East war — and of disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz — was receding:
- Brent crude: Settled down $5.75, or 5.85 per cent, at $92.57 a barrel on Monday, after dipping as low as $92.80 during the session; it continued falling after settlement and was last down more than $7 a barrel.
- US crude (WTI): Settled down $3.98, or 4.38 per cent, at $86.85 a barrel.
- The wider slide: Brent had already plunged 16 per cent last week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, after trading above $115 a barrel late last month.
- Tuesday: Brent edged a further 24 cents lower to $92.33 a barrel and WTI fell 35 cents to $86.50, according to Reuters, extending the losses.
The fall matters far beyond the trading floor. High oil prices had been feeding inflation and angering voters — Vice President JD Vance has acknowledged that the war against Iran was a major factor in the Republicans’ midterm defeat — and cheaper crude now offers the administration relief on living costs just as it faces a Democratic Congress.
The Deal on the Table — and the Doubts
Israeli media have reported that Iran has approved Qatari-brokered terms for an interim deal, under which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free up frozen funds — reportedly $8 billion held in Qatar — in exchange for an end to the American naval blockade. Neither government has confirmed those terms, and they should be treated as unconfirmed reports, not as agreed facts.
There are also open divisions inside the American administration. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said negotiations with Iran have made no progress and that there is no sign of a breakthrough in the near future — a markedly cooler assessment than the president’s talk of “positive momentum”. Reports have also suggested that Mr Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent oppose the reported interim arrangement, while Vice President Vance has led the push for it. A senior Iranian security official, meanwhile, told Iranian state media that Tehran had no plans to negotiate unless Washington took practical steps to meet seven conditions set out in a June interim agreement.
The gap between the president’s optimism and his own secretary of state’s caution is the honest measure of where this stands: a deal is possible, but it is not yet a deal.
What Happens Next
Everything now turns on whether the quiet negotiations produce a written agreement — one strong enough for Mr Trump to call it the end of the war, and acceptable enough for Tehran to sign. The president has tied his restraint to the outcome of the talks: strikes are “highly unlikely” if progress continues, but the bombers, the blockade and the target lists remain in place.
For the people of the region, the change is real but fragile. A war the president himself now calls “effectively over” could still return if the talks fail — and the next test will come quickly, in the wording of whatever agreement Qatar puts before the two sides. Until then, the guns are silent, the ships are still at sea, and the world is watching a negotiation that neither side is yet willing to describe in public.
By Faseeh Ur Rehman
Senior Journalist | The BNN Media – The Best News Network
News Beyond the Borders
