By A pair of SEC blue bloods square off under the lights, both headed in apparently different directions as the college football national title race takes shape.
Texas is inside the bracket and LSU on the outside looking in as they meet on Saturday night. Looking at the matchup, one expert model is taking a surprising view of what happens on the field.
Model gives Tigers a narrow advantage
Texas could be facing a difficult road test when they travel to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers on Saturday night.
Despite the Longhorns entering the matchup with a stronger record and considerable playoff momentum, ESPN’s Football Power Index model is predicting a close contest, and one that could go the other way.
LSU, not Texas, is favored in the matchup, according to the model. But by a very narrow margin, as Lane Kiffin’s team is projected to win by just 0.9 points.
According to ESPN’s projection, LSU has a 53 percent chance of pulling off a massive upset, compared to 47 percent for Texas.
More: SEC football power rankings entering Week 11
Texas brings momentum into LSU
Texas enters the showdown at 7-2 overall and has won four straight games. The Longhorns recently defeated Missouri 34-20, adding another important victory to their postseason résumé.
Arch Manning has helped Texas maintain its momentum, but questions remain about the team’s offensive line.
Texas has allowed 27 sacks this season, creating concerns about Manning’s protection against an aggressive LSU defense.
The Longhorns are also averaging just 128 rushing yards per game, another potential weakness the Tigers could exploit.
LSU has an opportunity to capitalize
LSU, meanwhile, enters the contest at 6-3 following a disappointing loss to Alabama. That puts them well outside the College Football Playoff bracket at No. 21.
The Tigers have struggled with consistency, but playing at home could provide a significant advantage to get back into the playoff picture.
A pivotal SEC showdown
Although the FPI projection favors LSU by less than a point, it suggests this matchup is essentially a toss-up.
Texas has the stronger record and seemingly more to play for. But LSU has home-field advantage and a potential defensive advantage that could cause real problems for Manning.
With both teams facing important College Football Playoff implications, Saturday’s showdown could have major consequences for their postseason hopes.
The matchup is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/espn-college-football-model-puts-202814824.html
