Bills can't let Jets' ugly record hide a dangerous offense

ORCHARD PARK – By the time the New York Jets turn the corner and end what will now become a 16-year NFL playoff drought – which yes, as the Buffalo Bills can attest, it’s bound to happen – Geno Smith probably won’t be wearing Gang Green.

The 36-year-old is back with the team that picked him in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft thinking he was going to be their franchise quarterback only to see him flop. That began a circuitous journey to the Chargers, Seahawks, and Raiders before his return to the Jets on a one-year contract in 2026 to be the bridge to the next guy who they hope will be their franchise quarterback.

Maybe they’ll re-sign Smith to mentor the next great hope, and whoever that player might be, he’s going to benefit from the development the young Jets’ offense is experiencing this season with Smith leading the way.

“It's been pretty amazing to watch and have firsthand knowledge of how he goes about his week,” coach Aaron Glenn said, referring to the work Smith puts in to keep himself in great playing shape for a player his age, and then how he communicates with offensive coordinator Frank Reich and his teammates in the meeting room and on the practice field.

Why the Jets offense is better than its numbers look

Statistically speaking, it’s easy to think the Jets stink. They rank 25th in scoring (20.2 points per game), 23rd in yards (309.9), 26th in third-down conversions (35.6%), 31st in red zone TD percentage (40.7%), and Smith is being sacked at the fifth-highest rate in the league (9.4% of dropbacks).

That’s not exactly a winning profile and it’s a bad look for old Bills friend Reich. Those struggles help explain why the Jets are 2-7 and on a four-game losing streak, but when you look at their offense, they have some talented players and it feels like they could start turning things around soon.

The Jets have a very nice trio of WRs in Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and impressive rookie Omar Cooper; two productive and physically stout tight ends in Mason Taylor and rookie Kenyon Sadiq; a running back tandem of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen that mixes speed with power; and an offensive line comprised of experience and emerging young talent.

“Yeah, I think we have a tremendous group of skill players,” Smith said. “No matter if you're a young guy or a veteran guy, you're still in the developmental phase because we can always get better. Us collectively pushing one another, really trying to push the standard and raise the standards every single day. Really pleased with the effort of these guys and the professionalism, but also really just looking forward to, collectively, us getting better and going out there on the field and trying to get these wins.”

Geno Smith gives Jets offense reason for optimism

When the Bills take the field at MetLife Stadium Sunday, they will do so as heavy favorites, but they better not sleep on the Jets offense. Smith may not be among the elite QBs in the league, but he might look like Joe Montana in his prime compared to what the Bills have seen the previous two weeks in the comedy shows that were Joe Fagnano and Carson Wentz.

According to Sumer Sports, in terms of EPA passing success rate Smith sits seventh among 22 QBs who have dropped back at least 250 times, his completion percentage of 67.4 is fifth-best, he’s fourth in completions (24) of at least 20 yards, and his 1.1% interception rate is fourth-best.

“When they've had all the receivers healthy, you can see what that offense really looks like,” said Bills coach Joe Brady, who played against Smith back in their Florida high school days at a time when he was referred to as Eugene Smith. “Geno's been doing it and he's still rolling, man. It's so impressive. He's throwing the deep ball extremely well so we're going to have to be on it at all times because they can push the ball and get an explosive play.

“They’ve got two running backs that can put the team on their back and be able to run it, the tight end room, they obviously got the first-round draft pick (Sadiq) and he's a matchup issue. I think it's a really good offense that has been in a lot of games and there's a lot of one-score games and you take a couple plays here and there situationally and the record looks completely different. So it's going to be a huge challenge for us defensively as a football team and a great opportunity for us.”

Jets’ red-zone struggles have sabotaged promising drives

What is holding the Jets back is their monumental struggles in the red zone as Smith’s EPA success rate dips to 35.0% which ranks 16th, and his completion percentage falls to 57.6% which is 12th.

During their four-game losing streak the Jets have run 132 plays in enemy territory which proves that they are moving the ball, but they’ve scored only seven touchdowns while settling for 13 field goals. That’s largely why the Jets have had five games where they failed to reach 20 points.

“The past couple of weeks on our offense, we've been operating at a very high level and this game here we just took a step back,” Glenn said following the Jets’ 35-12 Week 9 loss at Kansas City. “We're right on the cusp of trying to break through.”

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills can't let Jets' ugly record hide a dangerous offense