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FOXBOROUGH, MA – OCTOBER 31: Adon Shuler #8 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish breaks up a pass intended for Truman Brasfield #83 of the Navy Midshipmen during the first half at Gillette Stadium on October 31, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
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As I told you last week, it’s a monster college football Saturday.
But don’t get suckered when making your bets. Maybe the smartest bet you can ever make is being smart about exactly what games to bet.
There are a good 60 college football games each week, more if you’re into FCS (the old 1-AA level) and believe me, there’s money to be made on the FCS games.
It’s impossible for Vegas to get all 60 betting lines right. But they do know a lot – just like you do – about the biggest games and teams, therefore the lines on those games are much more accurate.
When I approach each week, I always try to find some off-the-beaten-path lines in addition to looking at the biggest games too.
So while it’s a big week, hey UCLA is 8-0 against the spread, New Mexico is 6-2. Indiana is 1-7. Don’t just look at the big guys.
All numbers from BetMGM as of Friday morning.
SYRACUSE, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 31: The Syracuse Orange celebrate following a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the SMU Mustangs at JMA Wireless Dome on October 31, 2026 in Syracuse, New York. (Photo by Rebecca Villagracia/Getty Images)
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Clemson at Syracuse (+2.5)
Inside the Odds: The Tigers are 3-5 this season against the spread, 4-4 over/under. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games against the spread dating back to last season. Syracuse is 4-4 straight up, but 5-3 against the spread. The Cuse have been underdogs the last four games and won all four against the spread.
The Pick: I love a home underdog at noon on Saturday. Last year, Clemson was a 17 point favorite at home and lost to the Orange. That was the game that Syracuse QB Steve Angeli popped his Achilles. He came back this year, got hurt again, but is back and has looked good the last two weeks. Clemson’s passing game is 115th in the nation. Clemson is still a sinking ship, unfortunately. I think Dabo is 100 percent genuine in everything he does and says, but his team just isn’t that good.
TALLAHASSEE, FL – AUGUST 29: Wide Receiver Jasen Lopez #7 of the Florida State Seminoles during the first half of the game against the New Mexico State Aggies at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on August 29, 2026 in Tallahassee, Florida. The Seminoles defeated the Aggies 34 to 17. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
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Florida State at Boston College (+6.5)
Inside the Odds: The Seminoles are 3-5 overall and 3-5 against the spread. Boston College is 5-3 against the spread, and 2-6 over under. Just when it looked like BC was sorta putting it together, they got smoked 47-2 by Duke last week. Florida State fired Norvell (see above) and installed Rick Stockstill as head coach.
The Pick: Typically, in the pros, interim coaches get a one-week bump of effort and performance (it’s usually because the players are spooked) but then a severe dropoff when the players realize that an interim coach really has no power. But I think Florida State has already packed it in. The defense has allowed 35 points in four straight losses. Seminoles QB Ashton Daniels is still a fun watch. Boston College still has something to play for. Another home underdog against a team with an interim coach and no defense? Sign me up for BC.
LINCOLN, NEBRASKA – OCTOBER 31: Chris Lawson #8 of the Washington Huskies celebrates with Jayden Limar #17 after scoring against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at Memorial Stadium on October 31, 2026 in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
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Penn State at Washington (-2.5)
Inside the Odds: Penn State’s defense ranks 18th in the nation in points allowed. They are 4-4 overall and a boring 4-4 against the spread. Washington is 5-3 overall, 3-2 at home. This is Penn State’s first trip ever out to Seattle. They flew out on Thursday to get acclimated. Big 10 football baby!
The pick: My X feed every Saturday is full of people saying that Penn State QB Rocco Becht is not good. I think he’s all right, just limited. The thing is Penn State doesn’t have a lot of weapons around him. And listen, Penn State hasn’t beaten anyone this year, like anyone. Washington should be feeling good after an emotional comeback in Nebraska and QB Demond Williams is recovered after banging up some ribs. I’m with Washington at home.
AUBURN, ALABAMA – OCTOBER 24: Quarterback Sam Leavitt #10 of the LSU Tigers runs for a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA football game against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium on October 24, 2026 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Stew Milne/Getty Images)
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Alabama (+6.5) at LSU
Inside the Odds: Both teams are 6-2 overall. Both teams are 4-4 against the spread. Bama has won eight of the last 10 meetings and, weirdly, has always been good in Baton Rouge. Alabama is 30-10 with three ties against LSU in Baton Rouge. Nick Saban laughed in his documentary about playing LSU there. The Tide have lost three in a row against the spread.
The pick: The college football world was shocked when in the ESPN, I mean, CFP rankings, the Tide were fifth, but, remember, if they had gotten a pass interference call against Georgia, they might be 7-1 and seen as serious contenders. LSU has a one-point loss to Kentucky and lost the Lane Bowl to Ole Miss. They are coming off two good performances over Miss State and Auburn, but I’m still not sold on the Tigers. Both teams had a week off to prepare. I love Bama getting points in a place where they historically do well.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 17: Darian Mensah #10 of the Miami Hurricanes celebrates a touchdown during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Hard Rock Stadium on October 17, 2026 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
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Miami at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Inside the Odds: This line has shot up in the last few days after the injury to Miami star WR Malachi Toney. The U are 5-3 against the spread. Its last five games have all hit the over. Notre Dame has lost three of its last four games against the spread. The Irish are 3-5 all-time against No. 1 teams in South Bend.
The pick: Expect to hear lots of old Miami/Notre Dame stories leading up to this one. The media can’t help itself. Wait, I’m media too. Miami was clearly looking ahead last week in the close win over North Carolina. Everyone gripes about Notre Dame’s schedule, but you do realize in college football in 2026, anyone can beat anyone. I am high on the Irish to win this game and cover. One, they’ll get a huge emotional lift from the crowd and two, Toney being out is a big, big deal. Besides, no one runs the table in college football anymore.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/week-big-not-college-football-145953989.html
