By Franchises going in completely different directions square off Thursday when the Baltimore Ravens host the Jacksonville Jaguars.
For Baltimore (4-4), things really couldn’t get any worse. On the first play in his first game back from injury, quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a thumb injury against Buffalo that could sideline him the rest of the season. Shortly after his exit, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley exited with a toe injury that will knock out for the remainder of the campaign.
There was speculation Baltimore could hold a fire sale despite being .500 on the season, but that came to an abrupt halt when it was reported it was making a trade for Jacoby Brissett. The Arizona Cardinals QB was benched in favor of Gardner Minshew in Arizona’s overtime win against Dallas, making him expendable. And the Ravens came calling for the veteran.
As for their opponents, quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Co. flew back across the pond after two games in London. After suffering a 34-31 defeat versus Houston, the Jaguars (5-2) dropped the hammer on the Indianapolis Colts in a 42-7 blowout. They’re now three games clear of the Texans in the AFC South.
Sportsbooks have pretty much settled on Jacksonville as a big 10-point road favorite, with some 9.5 numbers sitting out there. There is more fluctuation on the total, with the number showing up between 39.5 and 40.5.
Let’s take a look at this showdown in Baltimore and see where we can find some betting value in a game that forecasts to be a very one-sided confrontation.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10, 40.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Massive injuries have obviously beset the Baltimore offense with the loss of both Jackson and Huntley. However, Jacksonville doesn’t boast the healthiest attack either.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers isn’t at 100%, plus running backs Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are dealing with various ailments. It looks like Rodriguez will be good to go, but Tuten’s availability remains in question.
Jacksonville, which has seen four of its last five road games go under the total, could be dealing with a bit of a travel hangover and we might have a low-scoring game on deck. Baltimore may have trouble moving the ball with third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano.
I’m backing the total to stay under the number. Baltimore is going to have to get super creative on offense in its attempt to control time of possession and keep the Jacksonville offense off the field. And I think the Ravens can do that with Henry and an conservative game plan.
Bet: Under 40.5 (-118, DraftKings)
Player props
RB Justice Hill 3+ receptions (+102) | 4+ receptions | 15+ receiving yards (-102) | 20+ receiving yards (+154) | 25+ receiving yards (+225)
Fagnano is going to feel the heat throughout the night when he’s under center, so what does that mean?
I think it calls for a big night from Justice Hill.
The Ravens’ third-down and receiving back has had at least three receptions in three consecutive games, including a season-high four in last week’s loss at Buffalo. Hill has also had at least 20 yards receiving in three of his last five contests.
With a short week and Baltimore still stuck with Fagnano at starter, I believe Hill will be seeing plenty of action. He is the obvious safety valve for Fagnano, plus he has the ability to break screen passes for some potential big gains.
I’m putting together a couple of ladder plays on Hill tied to his receptions and receiving yards. Baltimore is going to find itself in plenty of third down-and-long situations, which should lead to a big performance from Hill.
QB Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing TDs (-122, FanDuel)
Lawrence, who was one of my preseason value picks for NFL MVP, has been solid to say the least. He’s thrown 17 touchdown passes against just four interceptions, racking up just under 1,700 yards in the process.
Now, Lawrence faces a Baltimore defense ranked the sixth worst against the pass and that gave up 71 points in its losses against Cincinnati and Buffalo. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen combined for six touchdowns through the air in those defeats.
Lawrence has cleared this number five times in seven games, including the aforementioned matchups against Houston (four) and Indianapolis (three) in London.
My gut feeling is head coach Liam Coen is going to try to put this game out of reach in the first half, which means he will open up the playbook for Lawrence and his receiving corps. Combining that with the fact Tuten is questionable with ankle/foot issues and I could see Lawrence reward backers of this prop play in the first half.
Anytime TD scorers
RB Derrick Henry (+125, FanDuel)
To say Henry is going to have to shoulder the bulk of Baltimore’s offensive load is an understatement. Head coach Jesse Minter has to hope his marquee running back can get something going for an offense severely hamstrung at quarterback.
Henry has generally struggled this season, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry. He hasn’t found much success on the ground of late, rushing for 58 yards or fewer in his last three games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Buffalo.
Henry’s recent numbers don’t inspire excitement, but we’re not focusing on his rushing total. We’re just looking for a touchdown, which he has nine of this season.
Baltimore will find its way into the red zone at some point. Maybe it’s off a big run or pass play. Perhaps it comes via a Jacksonville turnover. Regardless of the situation, I can’t pass up getting Henry at plus money in a game where the Ravens are going to rely heavily on their star.
TE Nate Boerkircher (+500, FanDuel)
This might look like a random, shot-in-the-dark betting angle, but that’s not the case.
Drafted in the second round of this year’s NFL draft, Boerkircher has been getting more reps in this Jacksonville offense. The rookie tight end out of Texas A&M is used more as a blocker, but Lawrence has had no issue targeting him the last two games.
Case in point in last week’s win against Indianapolis, where Boerkircher got loose on a route and Lawrence connected with him on a play-action pass for a 31-yard touchdown. That marked Boerkircher’s second consecutive game hitting paydirt, putting him on my radar.
Brenton Strange (+240 ATD) is the logical touchdown angle here and I will be using him as well, but getting this spicy number on Boerkircher is just too good to pass up.
