Michigan State football at Michigan: 5 determining factors and prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch looks at Michigan State's game at Michigan. When: 7:40 p.m. Saturday. Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor. TV/Streaming: Peacock. Betting line: Michigan -13.5.

1. MSU’s quarterback situation and depleted offense

Alessio Milivojevic is listed as questionable again, as he was heading into the UCLA game two weeks ago, when he wound up being unavailable. Backup Cam Fancher remains out. So, if Milivojevic can’t go, it’s true freshman Kayd Coffman again under center. Coffman is a talented prospect. You could see some of that talent in the way he threw the ball (especially how he threw it on the move) at UCLA. But he’s also probably too green not to make mistakes that’ll get punished against a Michigan defense that might be the best unit MSU has faced on either side of the ball since Notre Dame’s defense.

If Milivojevic can go, the Spartans at least have a chance at a performance that lacks the big mistake and has a couple drives that reach the end zone, putting some pressure on the Wolverines’ own offense. That said, with tight end Jayden Savoury now out injured, as well, and running back Jaziun Patterson still not able to play, the job for whichever QB is under center is not an enviable one.

2. Michigan’s own inept attack

MSU’s best hope is its opponent’s offense. The Spartans have the Big Ten's least productive offense, averaging just 19.9 points per game. The Wolverines are just above them at 21.3 points an outing. To put it in perspective, seven Big Ten teams are averaging more than 30 points per game. Only once have the Wolverines scored more than the 28 points they scored against Rutgers last week, and that was against UTEP. Michigan’s offense has all season lacked the explosion and consistency to hurt teams. We’ll see if that remains the case against a depleted MSU defense.

Freshman Tommy Carr is an upgrade as a passer from sophomore Bryce Underwood. The Wolverines have some talent at receiver that they’ve mostly struggled to unlock and a running scheme that folks in the know say doesn’t fit their personnel up front. If Michigan fails to reach 20 points, as it has in five of its games this season, the Wolverines are probably a turnover or two from this coming down to the wire.

3. What’s left of MSU’s defense

I don’t think folks who follow Michigan realize just how injured the Spartans' defense is — and injured in the wrong places. Sure, Michigan struggled to put away Rutgers, scoring 28 points. Pat Fitzgerald and Joe Rossi would — privately — probably kill to have Rutgers’ defensive personnel in this game. MSU is without at least its top two defensive players in tackle Ben Roberts and linebacker Jordan Hall, and maybe without its next best player these days, safely Devin Vaught. They’ll also be without at least two cornerbacks, with two more questionable. This was always a top-heavy roster that needed its stars to stay healthy. It didn’t happen. With Roberts, Hall and Vaught, this is a decent enough defense. Without them, the Wolverines’ offense might look more competent than its has in a while.

4. MSU’s offensive plan

If the Spartans are going to have a chance to move the ball and finish drives enough to win this game, this will have to be offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan’s masterpiece. And given that the Spartans’ season isn’t going anywhere, they’re desperate to win a game — any game — and this would be the best one to win, whatever ideas Sheridan hasn’t tapped into, this is the time.

If it’s Alessio Milivojevic at quarterback, Sheridan will have more options. If it’s Kayd Coffman, it’ll likely have to be a scaled-back approach. But going uptempo, well-timed trick plays, easy throws and smart plays on first down that keep the Spartans out of third-and-long, finding a run concept that works and hammering it — anything to move the ball and create a few explosive plays. MSU needs to figure out how to get into the end zone a couple times, at least, and kick at least a couple field goals. That’s the minimum. And it’s hard to see it happening.

5. Getting some weird stuff to happen

If these two teams line up and both play relatively clean football, MSU is in trouble. The Spartans need some weird stuff to happen — turnovers, calls that go in their favor, the crowd getting surly if Michigan’s offensive coordinator starts to bungle this thing. All of that could happen, given the way the Wolverines’ season is going. MSU probably has to win the turnover battle by two to have a realistic chance.

Prediction

If MSU was relatively healthy and resembled the team that took on Northwestern in mid-October, never mind the one that battled Notre Dame in mid-September, the Spartans would have more than a puncher’s chance against this uninspiring Michigan team. However, that is not MSU’s reality. And Michigan, for all of its warts offensively, still has a defense that wouldn’t be out of place playing for a Big Ten championship. It’s hard to picture this version of the Spartans being up for conquering that, when they haven’t beaten anyone in the Big Ten yet.

Make it: Michigan 27, MSU 10

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at Michigan: 5 determining factors and prediction