NFL Trade Deadline Grades: Who Won The Surprising Jessie Bates Deal?

And just like that, the NFL trade deadline season has nearly come to a close. 

The lead-up to this year’s trade deadline has almost been unlike any other. We saw trades involving two top-10 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft earlier in the season, before All-Pros and Pro Bowlers got moved in recent weeks. 

The most recent trade involving an All-Pro-caliber player came on Monday. In a trade that further solidified the Jacksonville Jaguars’ standing as contenders, they traded for three-time All-Pro safety Jessie Bates III from the Atlanta Falcons.

In terms of picks involved, it wasn’t the biggest trade so far this season. But it’ll certainly be one of the biggest moves ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Let’s grade the Bates deal, just as we have with the other big trades so far this season. 

Jaguars receive: S Jessie Bates III

Falcons receive: 2027 second-round, 2028 fifth-round pick

Greg Auman: For Jacksonville, trading for safety Jesse Bates is a chips-to-the-middle-of-the-table move, giving up a second-round pick and a 2028 fifth for what could be a nine-game rental. But the Jaguars are 6-2 and have a favorable remaining schedule, so they’re competing not just for the AFC South title but the top seed in the conference, which could give them multiple home games.

EverBank Stadium is in the middle of a major renovation, one that will have the Jaguars playing their home games in Orlando and London in 2027, so if there’s an urgency to make the most of this season at any expense to next year, it’s knowing that 2027 will be an unusual circumstance compared to this year.

In adding Bates, the Jaguars are upgrading a strength. They’re second in the NFL in points allowed at 15.1 per game, and third in the league in both interceptions (11) and total takeaways (15). They’ve given up more passing yards — they’re ranked 22nd there — but that’s as much a function of big leads that force opponents to throw more late in games.

The Jaguars lost in the wild-card round last year, so Bates brings postseason experience to the locker room. He made the Super Bowl with the Bengals in the 2021 season and had two interceptions in that playoff run. If Jacksonville can make a deep run in January, Bates could be a key piece of that push.

Bates, a second-team All-Pro safety last year, had been a leader and playmaker on the defensive side for the Falcons and remained productive to the very end, with 14 tackles in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals and forced fumbles in three straight games before that. His sideline interception of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy helped Atlanta pull off a key home upset as well just two weeks ago. 

With Bates in the final year of a four-year, $64 million contract, the Falcons had a chance to shift their focus from the present to the future, gaining much-needed draft capital. Atlanta is only a half-game out of first in the NFC South, and the Falcons’ defense gave up 34 points Sunday with Bates in there, so they’re consciously making this year’s team worse to help the long-term outlook. The Falcons are trying to end one of the league’s longest playoff droughts, failing to reach the postseason since 2017.

The Falcons have enough cap space available that they’ll be active in free agency, so that likely takes away any hesitation related to losing the comp pick they’d get if Bates left in free agency. Still only 29, Bates should draw a market in free agency close to what his last contract was, and that could net the Jaguars a mid-round comp pick if they don’t re-sign him. The Falcons also agreed to pay out much of Bates’ remaining contract this season, which helped them get a higher draft pick in return from Jacksonville.

The Falcons have been smart to lock up their young offensive core in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts this year, and even extended defensive tackle Gervon Dexter after acquiring him from the Bears before the season. Does this send a mixed message to this year’s team to trade away such a central player? That remains to be seen.

Jaguars grade: A

Falcons grade: B

Bears receive: DT Jeffery Simmons, 2028 fifth-round pick

Titans receive: 2027 and 2028 first-round picks, 2027 fourth-round pick

Henry McKenna: This is a coup for the Bears, who’ve mortgaged two late first-round picks to secure one of the best DTs in the NFL. 

Maybe folks haven’t heard of Simmons like the other superstars — and from my vantage, that’s only because… 

1) He has gotten lost in the Titans’ mess.

2) He’s such a humble player and teammate that people just don’t talk about him. 

Simmons is just what Chicago needs. The Bears defense has allowed the 10th-fewest points per game, but those numbers look skewed by outings against bad offenses like the Vikings, Eagles and Jets. The Panthers put up 37 against Chicago, the Packers got 31 and the Patriots scored 24. 

Before the season, I spoke to a Bears staffer who felt like they’d put the right pieces in place to make a sizable improvement on that side of the ball for 2026 — and I’m not sure they’re there yet. Simmons will get them there. Simmons is 29, and isn’t “young” by NFL standards, but the Bears have plenty of youth.

On the Titans’ side, it must be hard to stomach this, losing a leader and a superstar like Simmons. The return will be tough to convert into a Simmons-type player, but Tennessee can take some solace in the fact that Simmons went 19th overall. 

The Titans need to get younger. They need to shape their roster to the new vision. These picks will help them do that. (But of course, the turnover has been so constant that I can’t help but wonder … whose vision will it be?)

Bears grade: A

Titans grade: B+

49ers receive: DT DeForest Buckner

Colts receive: 2027 fourth-round pick

Eric D. Williams: The Indianapolis Colts shipped Buckner back to the team that selected him as the seventh overall pick of the 2016 draft as part of that team’s fire sale. Indianapolis received a fourth-round pick for the 32-year-old rangy defensive tackle. A cornerstone for the Colts defensively, Buckner has four sacks, eight quarterback hits and 31 combined tackles in seven games. 

Buckner should give San Francisco a pass rush boost. The 49ers finished with a league-low 20 sacks last season and this year hasn’t been much better, with 15 sacks (tied for 20th) so far this season. The 49ers are expecting the team’s best pass rusher, Nick Bosa, to return at some point this season from a calf injury. Paired with his former teammate in Buckner, the two should form a potent pass-rushing tandem for San Francisco, which is expected to compete for a deep postseason run. 

For the Colts, they get some draft compensation to start the rebuilding process after a disappointing start to the season that led to the firing of general manager Chris Ballard. But they’re also giving up a foundational player who is still productive and a leader within their organization and still has good ball left in him. 

The draft compensation is on the low side for a player of Buckner’s stature, even though he’s on an expiring contract and set to hit free agency at the end of this year. 

49ers grade: B+

Colts grade: C+

Seahawks receive: G Quenton Nelson

Colts receive: 2027 third-round pick, 2028 fifth-round pick

Ben Arthur: This was a brilliant move by Seahawks general manager John Schneider. In Nelson, an eight-time Pro Bowler and six-time All-Pro selection, Seattle gets a massive boost for Sam Darnold’s protection and an anchor upfront for what’s been an uneven rushing attack through seven weeks. 

With the Seahawks set to receive a third-round pick for losing executive Nolan Teasley, who became the Minnesota Vikings’ general manager, the team still has a third-round selection for 2027. And Seattle is also set to receive two fifth-round compensatory picks this year (free-agent departures of Kenneth Walker III, Riq Woolen), so a 2028 fifth-rounder is even more palpable than it already was for a player of Nelson’s caliber. 

The Nelson deal kicked off the Colts’ fire sale and was necessary, as Indianapolis needs all the picks it can get to supercharge a rebuild without a first-round pick. 

Seahawks grade: A

Colts grade: B+