NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football Best Bets—Bears At Seahawks

NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football features the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears in a battle of NFC contenders. The Seahawks are 3.0-point favorites, and the game’s total is 46.5 points.

The spread is small, suggesting a competitive contest. Unfortunately for the Bears, even if the game is close, they’ll likely struggle to run the ball. Assuming it is a close game, Seattle will likely need their top offensive weapon to do the heavy lifting. If the Seahawks are trailing, they’ll need to lean even more heavily on their stud wideout. In addition, if Seattle is beating the brakes off Chicago, their alpha wide receiver probably had a hand in it.

This season, my NFL player props are 13-9, generating $277 in profits for anyone who bet $100 at the listed odds. The following rushing under and receiving over props are an opportunity to add to the year’s profit.

NFL Week 8: Monday Night Football Best Player Props

• D’Andre Swift Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at FanDuel Sportsbook
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at FanDuel Sportsbook

D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears – RB)

Among 32 running backs with at least 60 rush attempts this season, D’Andre Swift ranks 10th in rush attempts per game (16.6), 14th in rushing yards per game (68.0), 20th in yards per carry (4.10), 18th in yards before contact per attempt (1.86), 16th in yards after contact per attempt (2.24), 17th in explosive run rate (10.3%), 23rd in success rate (46.6%), 15th in stuff rate (44.0%) and 14th in rush yards over expectation per game (3.2). Swift has been decent, but his numbers are mostly pedestrian.

Average won’t cut it against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks third in rushing yards allowed per game (71.0) and third in yards per carry allowed (3.40) to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey’s 68 rushing yards against the Seahawks in Week 5 were the most by a running back this year, and Rhamondre Stevenson’s 51 rushing yards in Week 1 were the second-most. Omarion Hampton (45 rushing yards in Week 4) and J.K. Dobbins (41 rushing yards in Week 6) were the only other running backs to clear 40 rushing yards against the Seahawks this season.

Swift had 78 rushing yards last week, snapping a streak of back-to-back games under 45 rushing yards. He’s had fewer than 59.5 rushing yards in three of his last four games, and the Seahawks are the polar opposite of a get-right spot. Additionally, if the underdog Bears get stuck in a negative game script, Swift will have an even more difficult time getting the requisite carries to clear 59.5 rushing yards against Seattle.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks – WR)

Among 109 players with at least 125 routes this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks first in target share (33.2%), second in targets per route run (0.35 TPRR), first in first-read rate (43.1%), first in air yard share (52.8%), first in yards per route run (4.05 Y/RR), third in receptions per game (8.3) and first in receiving yards per game (123.9). No one has ever reached 2,000 receiving yards in a season in the NFL, and JSN is on pace for over 2,100 receiving yards.

Smith-Njigba has produced 122, 155, 128, 76, 102, 134 and 150 receiving yards through seven games. His median outcome is 128 receiving yards. A receiving yardage line of 99.5 is jaw-dropping, but it also falls approximately 24 yards short of JSN’s per-game average and 28.5 yards short of his median. Smith-Njigba has reached triple-digit receiving yards in six of seven games.

Smith-Njigba can barbecue even the best defenses. The Bears might not fit that bill. Chicago ranks 17th in receiving yards allowed per game (149.4) to wide receivers this season. However, they rank 30th in yards allowed per target (9.69) to wide receivers. Smith-Njigba should have another massive effort and torch the Bears for at least 100 receiving yards on Monday Night Football.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nfl-week-8-monday-night-063432945.html