By As the defeated English army marched away from Yorktown in in October 1781, the band of the American rebels played a then familiar tune “The World Turned Upside Down”.
And in a hurricane wind blowing from that same America, we are witnessing the world of events and exhibitions being turned upside down in an unpredictable wind driven by AI. It had been a long time coming, but the dramatic change in the circumstances of our industry arrived almost overnight.
It was in February this year that, first, the FT and then the Wall Street Journal began publishing pieces on how exhibitions and events were probably immune from the effects of AI. In the language used by private equity and credit banks, they were “real”, they were “live experience”, they were human-to-human, they were not “fake” (it was Lori Hoinkes at Manchester Central who first articulated this to me in 2025).
And, coincidentally, investors, with trillions of dollars in loose powder to spend, turned like a herd as AI spooked them. When looking at buying into any business, investors began to ask: “How will AI affect this business?” If the answer was “It will”, then they didn’t buy.
“Companies that were uninterested in trade shows in January were suddenly converts by May”
If the answer was “We don’t know” then they were reluctant to buy. But if the answer was “AI won’t affect it and maybe even enhance it” then all of a sudden there were buyers hammering at the door. This whirlwind happened overnight. Companies that were uninterested in trade shows in January were suddenly converts by May (I know this from personal experience).
It’s not just events – it is all live experience
As the FT said on 15 August: “Moguls have made epic bets this week that consumers will continue to prize live experiences.”
Ari Emmanuel paid £4.5 billion for ATG, the 70-strong portfolio of theatres and live productions like Wicked. There are strong trade show connections here. CEO of ATG is Melanie Smith, who moved there after reorganising the NEC (and whose presence would have been a key part of the appeal). And ATG was owned by Providence, whose UK principal Andrew Tisdale had just sold CloserStill and Hyve for a combined $3.6 billion – thoroughly justifying his long-standing belief in the value of live events (I wouldn’t like to put a value on ATG a year ago, but it would have been far less than £4.5 billion and the price is reported to be 20 times the March 2025 adjusted EBITDA i.e. profit before interest and tax).
And even more startling was ex-Disney Bob Iger and Josh Kushner buyer the LA Lakers basketball team for $12.5 billion – only months after the sale of the Seattle Seahawks had set a stunning $9.5 billion record. It was Kushner (brother of the Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner) who had been alleged to be the main investor (at a reputed $4 billion) in Gianni Infantino’s bid to sell 21% of the FIFA World Cup – he obviously moved on very quickly after Infantino had imploded.
In 2000 the most expensive US sports franchise was the Washington Redskins NFL team, at $900 million. By 2020 prices had risen to $2.5 billion for the NY Mets baseball team. And now the LA Lakers go for $12.5 billion (“the Mona Lisa of Sports” says one investor, with season tickets priced at $3,000-$9,000). Between 2000 and 2020 the prices paid for sports franchises grew at around 5% a year. From 2020 to 2026 they have grown at 30% a year (we estimate that the value of our larger trade show companies has grown at circa 25% per annum in the past decade).
All of these investments (or bets) are on the continuing appeal of “live” rather than artificial/electronic, and are also contra-interpretive in that buyers don’t want to risk buying assets for which the long-term effect of AI remains unpredictable.
“It’s about stable revenue flows – projected to grow (north of) 5% a year through to 2030”
Spending on all live and recreational events (including exhibitions) has grown by 66% in the past decade and the dramatic recognition of the importance of “real” and “live” is raising all boats. After a difficult decade, it is reasonable to argue that serious Consumer shows will also benefit from this sea-change. Events such as ComiCon (expected to attract 200,000 visitors to Excel in 2027), Crufts, Goodwood, Taste, the Caravan Shows, Motorcycle Live, Dreamhack, the rapidly growing Trading Card Game events (Excel have more than 100,000 visitors to shows like Pokemon), the IP/Brand experiences like Disney, and many smaller shows will not only become more valuable, but are likely to become targets of investors carried along by the “AI Tailwind”.
I think we are already seeing this AI effect in Job Fairs. Companies of all sizes are finding recruitment more and more difficult as they receive literally hundreds of applications (the majority AI-generated) for graduate level positions. Hence there is a palpable move to physically attend more recruitment fairs (particularly university sponsored ones) where employers can meet applicants face to face and make a more personal assessment of their potential. Expect more of this in property fairs, franchise shows and the like.
The unlikely and unpredictable have changed our world
We have seen with Hyve, CloserStill, Emerald, Questex, Delinian in 2026 how resilient, solid, stable-cashflow trade show companies have suddenly become sexy in the eyes of investors. This near-frenzy is not at an end. There will be more deals and some of them, like ATG, will surprise. We are seeing it everywhere. Bill Foley, owner of Bournemouth football club, has just invested a chunky £45 million in the rugby’s Exeter Chiefs – though the decision to have no relegation for a number of seasons is a factor there.
It is so often the unlikely and unpredictable which changes the world. Black Swans. I think we are seeing it here. A year ago, no one predicted this goal rush of deals in exhibitions, in sports teams, in live entertainment. But AI has changed our world – it really has turned our prospects upside down.
The post The world of events and exhibitions – turned upside down appeared first on Exhibition News | The trade for shows..
