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Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and TST Best Bets is starting to get hot.
After a shaky start, we’ve put together back-to-back winning weeks, going 7-5 in Week 7 before finishing 8-4 in Week 8. As the season takes shape, we’re starting to see the league clearly and are looking to keep that momentum going.
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Lock of the Week: Denver Broncos -2.5 over the Carolina Panthers
Rundown: The Broncos’ comeback against the Chiefs last week was probably the most exciting game of the season so far. Denver’s defense had one last chance to save it at the goal line, and came through by keeping Kansas City out of the end zone on the final play.
These dramatic finishes that Denver fans have become accustomed to have also given the general public a reason to call Denver lucky. That was the knock on last year’s team, which seemed to constantly escape close games against middling opponents, like the Giants game where Denver scored 33 in the fourth quarter and the win over Washington that came down to a two-point conversion stop with Jayden Daniels out.
This isn’t the same Broncos team. They’ve been tested against tougher competition and have come away with wins over the Jaguars, Chiefs and Seahawks. The offense is starting to come around, too. After leaning on the defense early, Sean Payton’s group has averaged 29 points over the last two games.
Carolina’s run defense has been a problem, and the secondary is banged up. I like Bo Nix to have one of his best games of the season, while Denver’s defense keeps Bryce Young in check in a comfortable Broncos win.
Atlanta Falcons +3 over the Cincinnati Bengals
Rundown: International games can be tough to bet, and this one in Madrid is especially tricky with two of the league’s hardest teams to figure out.
The Falcons have real juice rushing the passer. When they get even average quarterback play and can get the ball to their star playmakers, they look like a real threat. We saw that when they snapped San Francisco’s unbeaten start.
Then there’s the other version of Atlanta, the team that looked completely helpless in a loss to an opponent that didn’t complete a pass last week. I’m expecting the pendulum to swing back the Falcons’ way against a defense that just let Cam Ward put together one of the best games of his career.
Atlanta might not pull off the outright upset, but I think it can score enough to stay in it and get to Joe Burrow often enough to make this a real game.
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 over the Indianapolis Colts
Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Nov 1, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) and wide receiver George Pickens (3) celebrate during the game between the Cardinals and the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Rundown: Dallas found a way to lose to the Cardinals last week after having them in a spot where they needed an onside kick to stay alive. It was a brutal collapse, but I can’t see the Cowboys following it up with an even worse loss.
The Colts are in the middle of a fire sale, moving on from key players and already looking toward the future. It’s hard to trust a team in that position to keep up with a Dallas team that should be desperate to bounce back.
The Cowboys have plenty to clean up, but this is a good spot to get right. I’ll lay the points and trust Dallas to take care of a Colts team that’s already looking ahead to the draft.
New York Jets +9.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Nov 1, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Emmett Johnson (10) scores a touchdown during the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
Rundown: After opening the season 5-0, the Chiefs have dropped two straight and slipped a half-game behind Denver in the AFC West. They’ll be eager to stop the skid, and a revenge spot against the Jets is sure to make Kansas City an enticing side for plenty of bettors.
I understand the appeal, especially with the Chiefs looking to make a statement. But New York’s offense has been cooking, and it has the firepower to keep pace if Kansas City gets rolling.
The Jets don’t need to win outright for this pick to cash. If their offense keeps producing, I like them to stay within the 9.5-point spread.
Detroit Lions -6.5 over the Miami Dolphins
Rundown: Detroit’s defense has quietly tightened up, holding its last two opponents under 20 points. Brian Branch is back, though the Lions are still dealing with injuries to several key defenders. If the unit keeps building on its recent improvement, it could make a major difference down the stretch.
The offense should give Detroit enough to pull away from a Miami team averaging just 16.7 points per game. If the defense keeps improving, the Lions have the pieces to make another run at the NFC title game.
New Orleans Saints -3 over the Cleveland Browns
Rundown: I’m loath to wager real U.S. currency on either Shedeur Sanders or Tyler Shough in this game, but one of these young quarterbacks has to come away with a win.
Sanders gets the start after spending the offseason in Cleveland’s quarterback battle. His 68.1 passer rating as a rookie offers little reason to expect a sudden turnaround, and I don’t have much confidence in the Browns’ offense here.
I’ll take the Saints to win by more than a field goal at home.
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 over the Washington Commanders
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Nov 1, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) gets past Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Teair Tart (93) and runs for a touchdown in the second half at SoFi Stadium.
Rundown: This Sunday brings the return of one of the best players in football. The Rams are getting star edge rusher Myles Garrett back after he went on injured reserve following their season opener.
Garrett’s return could make this a letdown spot, and Jayden Daniels’ ability to make plays with his legs is a tough matchup for Chris Shula’s defense. But at 4-4, the Rams badly need a win to keep their season on track. I have too much faith in this roster and coaching staff to pass up this spot, and I’ll take Los Angeles to win by at least five.
New York Giants -3 over the Philadelphia Eagles
Rundown: Even the biggest Eagles skeptic would have had a hard time predicting Philadelphia would be a three-point home underdog to a Giants team led by J.J. McCarthy. The line says plenty about how far this season has gone off the rails.
Joe Milton will become the Eagles’ third starting quarterback of the season, key players on both sides of the ball are banged up, and the coaching staff is on the hot seat. Last week, the Eagles helped Washington get its first win in more than a month and gave Jayden Daniels his first win as a starter since October 2025.
I expect more of the same against New York. The Eagles could end up propping up another rival, just as they did a week ago.
Houston Texans -5.5 over the Los Angeles Chargers
Rundown: Every week since around Week 3, I’ve had a hard time not talking myself into the Chargers as an upset pick to get their first win. It’s still tough to believe a team that made the playoffs in each of Jim Harbaugh’s first two seasons is the last winless team in the league.
But coming off a bye, Houston feels like the wrong opponent for that breakthrough. The Texans have a chance to regroup after blowing a late lead against the Giants, and if that loss doesn’t wake up a defense that has underperformed all season, I’m not sure what will.
This game could come down to the trenches. Houston’s pass rush gets a shot at a depleted, mostly rookie Chargers offensive line. If the Texans’ front comes out ready to go, things could get ugly at SoFi.
New England Patriots -3 over the Green Bay Packers
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Nov 1, 2026; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots safety Kevin Byard III (31) celebrates after intercepting the ball during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.
Rundown: This is a great matchup for “America’s Game of the Week.” New England and Green Bay feel like each other’s AFC and NFC counterparts: both are flawed teams with big-armed, gunslinger quarterbacks who can cover up plenty of problems for their offenses.
For me, the pick comes down to which defense I trust more. Micah Parsons is still working his way back and won’t be available for Green Bay in this one, so I’ll take the Patriots to win by more than a field goal at home.
Las Vegas Raiders +10 over the San Francisco 49ers
Rundown: The Raiders’ offense is too good for me to trust San Francisco to cover a 10-point spread. When they’re operating like this, they’re a difficult team to blow out.
Las Vegas is 6-2 against the spread, tied for the league lead, and the 49ers have already failed to cover as big favorites more than once. Give me the Raiders to stay within the number.
Seattle Seahawks -8.5 over the Arizona Cardinals
Rundown: Remember what I said about Dallas? This is the flip side.
Just as I expect the Cowboys to respond after getting embarrassed by Arizona, I think the Cardinals are due for a letdown after their upset in Dallas.
Every time we’ve started to think Arizona might be frisky, it’s been after a win like its Week 1 upset over the Chargers or its victory over the Rams. Both times, the Cardinals followed up with a rough loss: they fell 31-7 to Seattle after beating Los Angeles, then lost 30-16 to Denver after taking down the Rams.
I expect another letdown after the win over Dallas, and I like Seattle to get back on track and cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 over the Chicago Bears
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Nov 1, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) celebrates with wide receiver Tez Johnson (15) after scoring a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium.
Rundown: The hype around the Bears couldn’t be much bigger after their dominant Monday Night Football win over the Seahawks. I’m always wary of backing a team when the entire general public is behind it, especially in a primetime matchup against another hot team. That’s a tough spot for Chicago to follow up last week’s performance.
Tampa Bay has won two straight while throwing for just 64 yards combined. That’s the kind of stat that might come up in a trivia question years from now, but it also shows how effective the Bucs’ ground game has been. Bucky Irving ranks fourth in the league in rushing, and Tampa has the physicality to make this a tough matchup up front.
I expect a close game. Tampa’s run game can keep the Bears’ offense waiting on the sideline and limit Chicago’s chances to pull away.
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