What Just Happened in Texas Changes Everything

On an Election Day when national Democrats had monumental momentum, the results in Texas were a breed apart and could reshape the road to the White House in 2028.

Both James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa broke the Republican Party’s hold in deep-red Texas. But the losses didn’t stop there. When all the ballots are counted, Texas Republicans may be on the receiving end of something approaching a wipeout. It’s a stunning turn that proves in one fell swoop that years of Democrats’ optimism in someday flipping Texas were not foolhardy. Even Texas Republicans gifted last-minute gerrymandered districts in U.S. House races were not immune to the national mood. 

For Democrats, it was a dividend long invested. Year after year, Democrats kept insisting that this would be the cycle that would break the Republican fever in the state. And year after year, they woke up the day after Election Day feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy’s football.

Eight years ago, Democrats went all-in on Beto O’Rourke’s bid for Senate against incumbent Ted Cruz. O’Rourke came within three points of prevailing. Six years later, Cruz won another term by more than eight points.

Still, Democrats have long insisted that Texas is not a state of Republican voters. It’s a state of non-voters. Tuesday’s results finally proved that thesis.

The shift could have seismic consequences for the 2028 presidential map. Texas has 40 votes in the Electoral College, or roughly 15% of the haul needed to win the White House. If Democrats can sustain their success in Texas, that suddenly means other traditional swing states could prove optional. And both parties may find themselves having to invest heavily in the massive and pricey state to pin down Texas’ electoral votes every four years. 

Talarico’s win caps an intense Senate race that broke the nation’s longest statewide dryspell for Democrats, who last won statewide in Texas in 1994. Talarico is also the first Democrat to be elected Senator by Texans since 1988. Hinojosa is the first Democrat to win the Governor’s Office since 1990. That was when the governorship was won by Democrat Ann Richards, who then lost it to George W. Bush, beginning a Republican hold on the state’s executive seat that would last for three decades.

Gov. Greg Abbott, a fixture in Texas politics dating to the 1990s who had amassed a massive warchest, lost. Dan Patrick, long seen as an invincible figure in Republican circles, was positioned to lose the powerful office of Lieutenant Governor. The state Attorney General could also end up going to a Democrat by the time all the votes are counted. Even seats on the Texas Supreme Court were positioned to flip blue, a first since 1994.

It was a very good night for Democrats from coast to coast as voters resoundingly rejected Republicans’ embrace of President Donald Trump, whose polling on Election Day was at record lows. But it was particularly potent in Texas, thanks in no small measure to Trump’s intervention in the GOP primary to nominate the scandal-plagued Ken Paxton, the state’s outgoing attorney general. Even in Texas, 77% of voters said they were not adherents of MAGA, according to exit polls. The same surveys found more than half—54%—said Trump did not have the mental capacity to effectively do his job.

The night was also a massive defeat of billionaire Elon Musk, who spent $224 million on Texas races. That proved completely ineffective to keep his state tilted solidly Republican.

Now, Republicans in Texas—and Washington—face the unenviable task of trying to consider how they could get to 270 electoral votes if Texas’ 40 aren’t a lock.