By Headed into Week 10, we see markets sharpen due to more reps and information on every team, but some results can be deceptive.
Kentucky keeps winning close games, Tennessee just found a particularly annoying way to lose one and I understand why getting almost a touchdown with the Wildcats looks tempting. We also have Ohio State off its biggest loss in years with its back against the wall asking a new quarterback to figure it out on the fly and an Oregon team slowly starting to find its groove. The box scores can lie, opening betting value for us to wrap up the week.
Here are two of my favorite Week 10 college football wagers.
No. 23 Oregon Ducks at No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes (-8, 46.5)
Ohio State gained 464 yards at USC and scored one touchdown; if you bet the Buckeyes, sorry for bringing that up again. Luke Fahey threw for 260 yards in his first start, Bo Jackson and Isaiah West combined for 193 rushing yards and Jeremiah Smith remains a pretty good answer when a young quarterback runs out of ideas. There's plenty here to support an offensive rebound.
Ryan Day confirmed Fahey will start against Oregon, saying, "We've got to do a better job around him, helping him out as a young player." All that said, he didn’t have an easy job on the road in the rain facing adversity from the opening kick. With Julian Sayin unavailable, I expect Day to lean on the running game while Fahey settles in, and I'd rather have the under than ask a freshman to immediately fix everything that broke at USC.
Oregon's defense gives that approach a chance. We have the Ducks No. 22 defensively, and they held Northwestern to two field goals after halftime. They will need that version against Ohio State, because Smith doesn't require a perfectly called game to ruin an under. Oregon's offensive improvement is the concern.
QB Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern with Jay Johnson calling plays, and Dakorien Moore's 75-yard touchdown stretched a one-point lead to eight. After scoring 15, 17 and 10 in the previous three games, the Ducks finally gave people a reason to remember how talented they are. Smith and Moore will still get their touches. I'm just rooting for those drives to end with the field-goal unit coming on.
Bet: Oregon-Ohio State under 46.5 (-108)
No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats at No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5, 50.5)
Head coach Will Stein has Kentucky at 7-1 with six straight wins, including trips to Texas A&M and Oklahoma, so I understand wanting the Wildcats and almost a touchdown here. However, South Carolina and LSU both took them to overtime, Oklahoma outgained them 346-230 and Jordan Castell's 41-yard interception return with 1:17 left is what turned a one-point lead into that much more comfortable-looking 21-13 final.
Tennessee had the less enjoyable version at South Carolina. Holding wiped out an 18-yard touchdown pass to Braylon Staley, and a late fumble at the Vols' 34 let the Gamecocks gain four yards before kicking the winning field goal. Tennessee had led by seven late and lost 27-24. Those were Tennessee's mistakes, not something I can erase by calling them bad luck. But our deserved-points model had that game essentially even, while Kentucky's last three winning margins were each about four to five points better than the underlying play warranted. That's why I'm willing to buy Tennessee after the loss.
The defense makes the case. We have Tennessee No. 4 defensively, and before South Carolina, the Vols held Texas, Auburn, Arkansas and Alabama all to 20 points or fewer. Kentucky's offense ranks No. 20 in our ratings, so I expect a real test, but Tennessee has the better chance of making the opposing QB uncomfortable without needing a turnover to rescue the possession. Co-defensive coordinator Anthony Poindexter said it well: "You can't hunt plays, plays will come to you." Against Stein's formations and changing tempos, Tennessee needs stops more than it needs a highlight.
With the tough stretch of unique offensive styles, I’m banking on the fact we have seen the worst of Tennessee and the Volunteers’ upside — while figuring out the QB situation — is still undervalued.
Bet: Tennessee -6.5 (-110)
