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The NFL playoff picture after Sunday’s late-afternoon games features six AFC teams with odds of 89% or better to make the postseason, according to PFN’s FPM simulations, and one seat left for everyone else. New England still holds it, but a 45-27 home loss to Green Bay dropped the Patriots from 72.2% to 57.7%, the steepest fall of Week 9 so far.
Two games remain to reshape the board: Tampa Bay at Chicago on Sunday night and Buffalo at Minnesota on Monday night.
Week 9 NFL Playoff Odds: The AFC’s Open Seat and the NFC North Logjam
Jacksonville (99.4%), Buffalo (97.3%), Denver (95.8%), Cincinnati (95.7%), Kansas City (94.7%) and Pittsburgh (89.0%) have pulled ahead of the pack. Kansas City posted the week’s biggest gain so far, up 10.3 points after a 35-12 win over the Jets, and Cincinnati’s AFC North odds jumped from 44.4% to 59.6% after a 34-17 win over Atlanta in Madrid. Denver leads Kansas City 55.8% to 43.3% in the AFC West race, and idle Pittsburgh, at 36.5% to win the North, comes out of its bye with a trip to Cincinnati.
Turnovers loosened New England’s hold on No. 7. Drake Maye threw three interceptions, two to Xavier McKinney, and Green Bay turned four takeaways into 22 points. “We haven’t had a clean, turnover-free game yet,” Maye said. The Patriots’ AFC East odds fell from 23.6% to 12.7%, leaving Buffalo at 87.3% to win the division before it plays.
Cleveland (33.6%) is the only other AFC team above 20%. Todd Monken passed on a tying extra point with a minute left in overtime in New Orleans, and the two-point try failed in a 23-22 loss. “Tie or lose is what you’re saying there if you kick the extra point,” Monken said. A tie would have left the Browns 5-3-1, a half-game ahead of New England.
San Francisco (98.2%) and Minnesota (95.8%) lead the NFC. The Giants, 5-2-1 after a 19-11 win in Philadelphia, rose to 85.0%, with an 83.8% chance to win the NFC East doing nearly all the work.
The crowd starts in the NFC North. Chicago (79.3%), Detroit (76.0%), and Green Bay (69.8%) all trail Minnesota, and the four clubs combine for 320.9 percentage points, an expected 3.2 playoff berths from one division.
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Green Bay’s 45-27 win, behind 372 passing yards from Jordan Love, opened a 22.8-point cushion on 5-4 Seattle (47.0%), with the 5-4 Rams at 26.8%. Minnesota visits Green Bay next, and Love kept his focus there. “You can’t let one game lull you to sleep,” he said.
Buccaneers vs. Bears and Bills vs. Vikings: The Prime-Time Playoff Stakes
Tampa Bay is the strangest contender on the board. The Bucs are 3-5, a record that has produced a playoff team just seven times in 35 tries since 2020, yet FPM puts them at 63.8%. Of that, 63.0 comes from winning the NFC South, leaving a wild-card path worth less than one percentage point.
Every South team is 3-5 or worse, and Tampa Bay ranks second in PFN Defense Impact Score with an 89.5 grade. The Bucs gained 7.3 points before kickoff as Carolina (19.7%) and Atlanta (10.4%) lost.
Chicago has felt the NFC North squeeze without taking a snap. The Bears slid from 86.0% to 79.3% as Detroit and Green Bay won, and their division odds sit at 15.4%. FPM still makes them a 57% favorite Sunday night.
Buffalo (97.3%) and Minnesota (95.8%) are both near-locks, so Monday night settles seeding and leverage in the NFC North, where the Vikings hold a 57.8% title chance. FPM favors Minnesota at 58% even with the market making Buffalo the road favorite.
A Tampa Bay win at Soldier Field would put the Bucs alone atop the South at 4-5 and drop Chicago to 6-3, level with Green Bay. In a division that FPM expects to fill more than three playoff spots, one loss can turn a title contender into a wild-card team looking over its shoulder at Seattle.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/nfl-playoff-picture-week-9-023258257.html
